Sheldon Keefe has done masterful work since taking over the Leafs head coaching job on November 20, 2019 - going 45-19-7 in the 71 regular season games they’ve played since then.
The changes in the style of play are significant. Team defence has improved as the players are more connected defending their own zone and have clear options on where they can move the puck to exit cleanly. They understand their angles and positioning better in the neutral zone and are giving up fewer odd-man rushes. And most significantly, they have moved away from the low-to-high pound it from the point style of generating offence to a more modern and fluid 1-3-1 in-zone offensive set up that allows the players to move and fill spots to accentuate their skill and creativity.
But further than the systematic side of the game, something I’ve noticed game in and game out is that Keefe consistently makes smart deployment decisions using logic and not reacting to specific, oftentimes negative, events. For example, he puts players together that make sense and takes their feedback into consideration. Marner and Matthews wanted to play together for a long time before he paired them up, and they’ve been dominant ever since. He also makes his plan very clear. He’s not so much predictable as he is simply logical. He starts his best offensive line in the offensive zone more often. He understands that each game is different, and doesn’t automatically start his fourth line after every single goal for or against. And he’s always looking out for the best interest of his players and trying his hardest to put them in positions to succeed.
He makes smart decisions every single game, but a couple in-game deployment decisions stuck out for me over the last couple weeks. The first was sneaking Tavares out late in a blowout against the Senators 2 weeks ago. JT was struggling to produce offence at 5v5. I actually thought he might reunite him with Marner for the whole game to try and snap him out of it and bring his confidence back up.
Instead he kept his lines the same (that’s why I’m not an NHL Coach), but when they were up 6-3 with just over 3:00 left in the 3rd he spotted Tavares a shift with Marner and was rewarded. JT shrugged it off, but there’s no doubt that goal gave him a boost moving forward and he’s been more of a difference maker since then. And in situations like this it really is the thought that counts. Even if he doesn’t score here, he knows the coach is on his side and trying to get his game back. The rest of the team also notices and knows that if they fall into a similar slump, the coach will try his best to bring them out of it.
These deployment moments don’t always work but when they do it’s a good feeling. I can see that wry smile under his mask.
The second game that Keefe made a significant difference using his logical thinking was February 24 vs. Calgary. With 3:27 left in the 3rd period, it was a 0-0 game. Mikheyev-Engvall-Nylander were on the ice in their own zone with Dermott and Holl on D. Engvall chased too much as the center and lost his angle, leaving a Calgary player wide open in front of the net. Nylander was in the high slot, but noticed Engvall was out of position just a half a second too late and Calgary scored. By a lot of people’s eye tests, Nylander was to blame because he was the closest player and was late in his stick check. Could he have helped lower because Engvall was clearly not there? Sure. But it wasn’t all on him.
Too many coaches would have seen this and gone back to the old rhetoric that Nylander fell asleep and missed his coverage. They would have taken his “missed assignment” personal and stapled him to the bench for the rest of the game. Guess what. Players don’t miss coverages on purpose just to spite the coach. If a player misses an assignment, it’s not personal. If they turn the puck over and the other team scores, it’s not because they don’t like the coach. If it becomes a habit then it needs to be corrected, but what would benching Nylander accomplish in a situation like this other than to feed the coach’s ego.
Instead, now being down 1-0 with just over 3:00 left, Keefe didn’t overreact to one small breakdown. He shifted his mindset to tying the game. In order to tie the game, you need to score a goal. Who gives you the best chance to score a goal? Your top end players; Nylander being one of them. After a quick Kerfoot-Engvall-Mikheyev shift following the goal against, Keefe follows that with Marner-Matthews-Hyman Dermott-Holl. At 2:18, he pulls the goalie and Tavares jumps on as the extra attacker. (Point for the early pull. Again, just a situation to think logically. Would you rather have 2+ minutes of 6v5 to try and score a goal or under a minute?) The puck is cleared and at 1:45 as they break the puck back up the ice, Dermott and Holl are replaced by Nylander and Rielly. Yes, Nylander is right back out there because he gives you the best chance to score. He’s also in the “D” position. Just a reminder, you need to score. If you don’t, you lose. So put out the players that give you the best chance. Your top 5 forwards + Rielly (who basically can act as a forward in this situation) accomplishes just that. If you don’t have a player like Rielly on your back end, you can put out 6 forwards. I remind you again, YOU NEED TO SCORE. Forwards play forward because they have more experience scoring goals.
The Leafs get the puck on net, Nylander sticks with it and bangs in the equalizer.
Logic continues to rule into overtime. Matthews had a banged up wrist and we know how important the opening faceoff is in 3v3 OT, so Keefe starts with Tavares (taking the faceoff), Marner and Rielly. 40 seconds later he sends out Nylander (who takes the faceoff), Matthews and Holl. Nylander again is trusted in a situation where he can excel. Put your players in positions to succeed. He wins the draw, and the rest is history.
The players and coaches love it. Dermott even goes in for the fist bump and (I’m guessing) gives Keefe the business about his deployment decisions that keep working.
If you use logic in your decision making as a coach and let that guide you into making the “right” decisions more often than not, you can turn negatives into positives very quickly. If the Leafs were led by a different head coach, he may have become emotional in his reaction to the initial Calgary goal, and used that negative emotion to fuel their decision making for the rest of the game. Instead, Keefe moved on to what he can do to give his team the best chance to win, and that was to keep playing your best players.
I truly believe these moments in a game and in a season have a significant impact on a team. If they lose this game 1-0, the media jumps all over Nylander again and it could start an unnecessary negative spiral in the team’s attitude and play. Keefe immediately flipped the negative into a positive and gave Nylander the immediate chance to redeem himself. He scored 2 goals (what he does best), the team gets to see that the coach will remove his ego from the equation in order to do what’s best for the team, and they keep on rolling.